Eizenkot Leads Netanyahu in Polls but Falls Short of a Governing Majority

TEHRAN — Recent Israeli opinion polls show Gadi Eizenkot’s opposition camp narrowly ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc, but neither side appears certain to secure the 61 seats required to form a government independently.

A report by the Iranian Students’ News Agency (IRNA), citing Israeli media, said the election remained highly uncertain because of the possible passage of smaller parties over the electoral threshold, turnout among Arab voters and the opposition’s dependence on Arab parties for a parliamentary majority.

The Maariv newspaper identified two factors as particularly important: the performance of the new Amkha Israel party, led by Ofer Winter, and turnout in Israel’s Arab community.

Winter’s party emerged from Likud. If it fails to cross the electoral threshold, some right-wing votes could go unrepresented in the Knesset. If it succeeds, however, it could take seats from other right-wing parties and complicate Netanyahu’s efforts to assemble a coalition.

A Channel 12 poll gave Amkha Israel four seats, putting it above the threshold for the first time. The development has reportedly created a dilemma for Netanyahu. Attacking Winter could prevent the party from crossing the threshold, but excessive pressure could also push some right-wing voters toward Winter’s party. Likud figures have stepped up criticism of the new party, arguing that it could waste votes from the right-wing camp.

Winter has said his support comes mainly from voters who identify with the so-called center-right but no longer want to support Likud or far-right parties, while also rejecting the left and center-left.

Arab turnout is another potentially decisive variable. Arab parties won a combined 10 seats in the previous election, while the Maariv report said they could secure 14 or even 15 seats if turnout increases this time. A stronger performance by Arab parties would not necessarily strengthen the opposition directly, but it could reduce the number of seats available to Jewish and Zionist parties and make it more difficult for the opposition to reach 61 seats.

In a recent Channel 12 poll, Eizenkot’s Yashar party was projected to become the largest party with 23 seats, down two from the previous poll. Likud, led by Netanyahu, was projected to win 20 seats, down one. Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad list was given 13 seats and Yair Golan’s Democrats 10.

The poll projected eight seats each for Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, United Torah Judaism and the joint Arab list. Shas was projected to win seven seats. A joint Religious Zionism–Zehut list led by Bezalel Smotrich was given five seats, while Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas, Amkha Israel and the Yoaz Hendel–Yaron Zelicha list were each projected to win four seats.

According to the same poll, the opposition’s Zionist parties would hold 54 seats. With the support of Arab parties holding 12 seats, the opposition could reach 66 seats. Netanyahu’s bloc would hold 50 seats, while the Hendel–Zelicha list would remain outside the two main camps with four seats. The figures indicate that an Eizenkot-led government would require support from Arab parties or another arrangement beyond the opposition’s current Zionist base.

A separate Kan 11 poll showed an even closer contest, with Netanyahu’s bloc and Eizenkot’s bloc each projected to win 52 seats. Arab parties were projected to hold 12 seats. Yashar led the party standings with 24 seats, followed by Likud with 20. B’Yachad was projected to win 12 seats, while the Democrats and Yisrael Beiteinu were each given eight. Jewish Power was also projected to receive eight seats; United Torah Judaism and Shas seven each; the joint Arab list seven; Religious Zionism six; and Ra’am five. Amkha Israel and the Hendel–Zelicha list were each projected to win four seats.

Eizenkot has also gained ground among Netanyahu’s opponents. Channel 12 reported that 59% of opposition supporters viewed him as the camp’s true leader, compared with 19% for Bennett and 11% for Lieberman. Asked who would be best suited to become prime minister after the election, 53% selected Eizenkot, compared with 31% for Bennett and 13% for Lieberman.

At the same time, 52% of opposition supporters said competition among Eizenkot, Bennett and Lieberman weakened their camp’s chances of victory, while 38% disagreed. In addition, 65% said the opposition’s main candidate for prime minister should be determined by which party wins the most seats, while 25% favored political experience as the main criterion.

The report also said Likud was seeking to use the Central Elections Committee to block some Arab parties from participating in the election. Likud reportedly justified the request with claims related to security issues and ideological differences. The move was presented as part of the broader election contest and as an effort to place pressure on Eizenkot.

The polls show Eizenkot’s party leading the field, but a party’s position in the standings does not by itself guarantee the ability to form a government. Eizenkot must manage rivalries within the opposition and build a coalition beyond his current base, while Netanyahu faces the competing risks posed by Winter’s party and the broader distribution of right-wing votes.

The election is therefore expected to hinge not only on the contest between Eizenkot and Netanyahu, but also on turnout among Arab voters, the fate of smaller parties and the coalition negotiations that follow the vote.