## Verified facts
The supplied Press Association reports say the UK Government has sought to reassure the public that Britain is not facing a diesel shortage. Transport minister Keir Mather told Sky News that UK supply was “robust” and “resilient”, citing a diverse range of sources and resilience built into the system. He also said the Government was working with the US, European partners and the International Energy Agency to sustain diesel flows.
At the same time, prices have reached record levels. RAC figures cited in the reports put the average UK diesel price at 200.01 pence per litre on Friday, after an earlier report recorded 199.79 pence on Thursday. The previous reported high was 199.09 pence in June 2022. The RAC said the price rises showed “no signs” of slowing down and that filling an average family car cost £110.
The reports attribute disruption in global supplies to the conflict involving the US, Israel and Iran, alongside the continuing Russia-Ukraine conflict. They state that the UK imports nearly 55% of its diesel, with the US accounting for around 31% of that amount.
The United States has urged European countries to use their reserves. US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said they should make additional supplies immediately available, while President Donald Trump said he might call for Europe to draw down its stocks. Trump has also said he was considering a ban on US diesel exports, which the reports say would make Britain compete with other countries for alternative supplies.
A later supplied Press Association report says G7 countries agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves over four months through the International Energy Agency, including a substantial diesel release within the first 20 days. The G7 also said it would refrain from energy export restrictions between G7 countries and called on producers not to impose bans that could intensify market tensions.
The UK is required, as an International Energy Agency member, to hold oil stocks equal to at least 90 days of net oil imports. Jonathan Owens of the University of Salford said releasing reserves could provide a short-term buffer, but would reduce protection against later disruptions until stocks were replenished. Angel Talavera of Oxford Economics said a full US diesel export ban could raise European diesel prices by 40% to 50%.
## Interpretation
The evidence indicates a distinction between physical availability and affordability. Government statements address the risk of an immediate shortage, while record prices and warnings from the RAC and economists show that the disruption is already imposing significant costs on households and businesses.
The G7 reserve release can be interpreted as an attempt to ease near-term supply and price pressure, rather than evidence that the underlying market problems have been resolved. The expert evidence supplied describes reserves as a temporary buffer or insurance policy, not a long-term answer to dependence on international markets, refining capacity constraints or possible export restrictions.
The UK’s exposure appears material because it imports a substantial share of its diesel and receives a significant portion of that imported supply from the US. However, the Government’s stated confidence in supply resilience and the later coordinated reserve decision are not necessarily contradictory: reserves may be used to manage market stress even while authorities maintain that an immediate UK shortage is not expected.
## Uncertainty
The supplied reports contain different price readings because they describe different points in time: 199.79 pence per litre on Thursday and 200.01 pence on Friday. The evidence also reports possible future actions, including a US export ban, without establishing that such a ban has been introduced. The effect of the G7 reserve release on prices, availability and the duration of the disruption remains unconfirmed in the supplied material. Claims about the causes and likely scale of future price movements are attributed to the relevant officials, organisations and experts rather than independently established by the evidence.
