Why Is Netanyahu Afraid of Defeat?
IRNA traces Benjamin Netanyahu's decades-long hold on power and the political costs he could face if defeated.
IRNA’s report chronicles Netanyahu’s decades-long grip on Israeli politics, the waves of elections and shifting coalitions, and the strategic moves intended to preserve power. It notes ongoing corruption probes and judiciary-related tensions, as well as the impact of the October 2023 attacks, and signals that the second part will analyze the costs of defeat.
According to Tehran-based IRNA, Benjamin Netanyahu has held power in Israel for about 19 years, wielding the prime ministership as well as leadership of the cabinet and the Knesset. The report asks why he pursues a return to power so intensely, given his long tenure. It notes that Netanyahu’s name and image have become central to the electoral blocs surrounding him, effectively shaping political alignments between pro- and anti-Netanyahu forces.
The piece outlines a turbulent period from 2019 to 2022 when Israel held five elections in a bid to form a government. The first two elections did not produce a cabinet, and the third saw Benny Gantz’s Blue and White alliance join with Netanyahu’s Likud to form a coalition of 72 seats, which lasted only seven months after Netanyahu failed to honor commitments to Gantz, leading to new elections.
In the fourth election of 2021, Netanyahu first sought to form a government for six weeks but was unable to do so. Yair Lapid of Yesh Atid then formed a government, bringing Naftali Bennett into the coalition, and on June 13, 2021, the cabinet was formed. Netanyahu sat in the opposition rather than leading the coalition, a difficult reversal for him. From 2009, he had already spent 12 consecutive years as prime minister, and by 2021 he held the record for the longest tenure.
The Bennett–Lapid government lasted about 18 months. Netanyahu, in exchange for significant concessions, won the support of some members of the Yamina party, but when votes approached to dissolve the Knesset, those members did not prioritize their party’s interests. The coalition’s end allowed corruption cases against Netanyahu to proceed more vigorously, while he was not in control of the levers of power to shield himself.
Netanyahu returned to power after the 25th Knesset elections, securing a majority with fringe movements. His strategy included attempts to gain sway over the judiciary, which sparked protests in the Palestinian territories. The report also notes that the October 7, 2023 attack campaign (the Al-Aqsa Flood operation) posed new, serious challenges to his leadership, even as polling trends remained unfavorable for him and his coalition.
The piece concludes by saying that in the second part of this report, it will discuss the costs Netanyahu would face should he be defeated.